See article titled Mexico is Racing to Avoid a Drug War:
In the article, alleged security analysts confirm that it is likely that there will be a power struggle within the CJNG and that rival cartels will challenge the CJNG for power.
Narcostates and the Politics of Cocaine both detail that the kingpin strategy has never worked. The kingpin strategy only changes the pieces on the chessboard resulting in more narcoviolence. As explained in Narcostates, every time the kingpin strategy has been implemented, it has led to a three way war by causing: 1. an intercartel conflict for plazas of distribution; 2. an intracartel power struggle over who will be the cartel leader (often causing the cartel to fracture); and 3. increased confrontations between the Mexican government and the cartels as their intercartel and intracartel power struggles played out.
What is even worse, is that the Mexican and US government’s intelligence and communications with the cartels break down leaving those entities blind while possibly inviting in more dangerous actors. Because the US is demanding the extradition of Mexican cartel capos, it is a wonder why the the cartels have not stepped-up their confrontations with the Mexican government in opposition to extradition. In Colombia, the issue of extradition greatly expanded their cartel war during the 1990s. El Mencho likely knew that if he were apprehended, he would be extradited to the US and face the remainder of his life in Colorado’s ADX Florence federal prison. The machismo in El Mencho and the influence of Santa Muerte likely caused him to go down with a fight – not a whimper.
As a further update, the public also knows now that El Mencho was killed in a shootout after the Mexican FES traced El Mencho to a girlfriend’s house in Tapalpa. As a side note, I have been watching a British series called Villains. In almost every story, each villain was brought down or captured due to their desire to contact past/present girlfriends. Here is a link to the playlist – https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLBhWllxOAdhaCAY8n2kDJeOCSo4p9uMCN
Here is what I originally wrote on 2/23/2026. I’ll put my neck out before the bought and sold will…
Mexican Special Forces – likely the FES (also known as the Mexican Marines) – killed El Mencho on 2/22/2026. El Mencho had been apprehended alive, but died in the FES’s custody from wounds he received while resisting capture. It is reported that the US military JSOC provided intelligence to assist with the operation. In the aftermath of his death, there were disruptions throughout at least 20 Mexican states where CJNG members retaliated against the Mexican government by setting up roadblocks and assassinating 17 national guardsmen and police officers. Puerto Vallarta, which is in the State of Jalisco, witnessed some of the most visible violence.
Here is the news story: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/new-us-military-led-group-aided-mexicos-hunt-el-mencho-cartel-boss-2026-02-22/
Analysis:
Politicians looking to score political points will say that El Mencho’s death is a great victory. Indeed he is a killer. Yet, in the big scheme of things his death changes nothing.
Now that he is dead, who is going to replace him?
The fact is that the authorities don’t know. The CJNG will either fracture or witness an internal a power struggle. Audias Flores-Silva “El Jardinero” is considered to be El Mencho’s successor. Yet, there is a $5 million dollar bounty on his head and he might not last long. It’s likely that the CJNG will remain intact, though there may be a struggle within the cartel for power. It’s possible the cartel may fracture as the Sinaloa Cartel did when El Mayo was arrested (fracturing into the El Mayitos and the Los Chapitos). A little of both will likely occur and it should not be discounted that competing cartels will move in on the 13 Mexican states where the CJNG has a presence, including some of the most popular tourist destinations such as Puerto Vallarta in Jalisco and Cancún in Quintana Roo.
I already hear people saying El Mencho’s death will bring peace to Mexico. On what planet do they live? One cartel boss’s death is not going to change much. While the demand for drugs remains constant, there will always be a supplier.
The kingpin strategy has never worked. Read either of my books and the story will tell itself. Violence begets more violence. Look at Puerto Vallarta. It’s a war zone. American citizens and expatriates will possibly become targets.
I also hear commentators say that Mexico needs to do what Nayib Bukele did in El Salvador. El Salvador is maybe 1/20 the size of Mexico if not even smaller. The jails are notoriously corrupt like those in the US and are controlled by various criminal factions. It would be extremely difficult for Mexico to impose a nationwide CECOT system.
A military solution to the War on Drugs has never worked. it did not work in Colombia and it did not work on Mexico during the Fox and Calderon presidencies – if anyone can remember that far back – certainly Trump cannot. As noted in Narcostates, Calderon’s policies led to the escalation in the death rate throughout Mexico and threatened the very essence of Mexico’s institutions. I suspect the cartels will work even harder to undermine Mexico’s institutions now.
In Narcostates, I provided an alternative solution to the problem in Mexico. Trump’s seems to rely on using the military as the solution to all foreign policy matters, while the military will always look for new reasons to justify its spending as part of a narco-security complex. Yet, relying solely on a military solution to “win” the War on Drugs is similar to hammering a square through a circle. It will not work.
El Mencho was not a good guy. Yet, his death changes nothing except the chess pieces on the ground. The Trump administration has put great pressure on Claudia Sheinbaum “to do something”. I am sure she worries that her presidency will be remembered like that of Calderon’s if she bows entirely to Trump’s pressure. I’d sure like to know what the CISEN thinks about the new chess board.
Update: Here is a link I received on 2/23/2026. As I said, this operation puts Americans in jeopardy; U.S. citizens have reportedly been kidnapped… https://townhall.com/tipsheet/amy-curtis/2026/02/23/report-americans-have-been-kidnapped-in-puerto-vallarta-n2671756
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