Here is a video of my presentation to Agora Lab https://www.agorasocial.org/en which held a conference in Conjunction with the UN CCPCJ Conference on May 22, 2025. Much of the event is in Spanish. If you are interested, my presentation is in English at around the 58:25 mark. What ties this conference together is the effect of the US emphasizing military solutions when dealing with political or criminal issues in Latin America.
There may be a few holes in my presentation. I had about a week and a half to prepare my presentation. One might say that contradict myself when I argue against the kingpin strategy, but then argue that politicians must have protection against plata o plomo.
From my research, the kingpin strategy has never worked. Cartels will fracture or a new kingpin will emerge. Just look at the shift in cartel alliances now that El Mayo is out of the picture. The El Mayitos faction of the Sinaloa cartel are now allied with the CDN (former Zetas) and the Beltran Leyvas. On the other hand, the Chapitos faction of the Sinaloa cartel are now allying with the CJNG.
Yet, as long as the world maintains a proscriptive policy and nations are required to uphold their 1961 and 1988 obligations to the UN, the cartels must be confronted. There are other ways to get at the cartels without militarizing the conflict and increasing the stakes with the kingpin strategy. I outline these methods in Narcostates, but also at the end of this presentation.
I barely mention the border in this presentation, but tougher border and littoral water control is needed. Indeed, improvement along the border has been occurring since Donald Trump became president. While I am vehemently opposed to the Trump administration taking unilateral miliary actions against the cartels within Mexico’s sovereign territory (for a variety of reasons), the administration’s decision to label the the cartels as terrorist organizations has allowed the US government to go after their assets. Going after the cartels’ assets is the key to breaking them and their ability to subvert Mexican institutions. While I do not think that the cartels qualify in the same vein as Islamic terrorism, designating them as terrorists was a necessary move to get at their financing.
Regardless though, as long as there is a demand for narcotics, the high-level game of cops and robbers will continue. Escalating the conflict with US missile strikes or US Special Forces has serious implications. Escalation has the potential to make things much worse potentially increasing the level of violence to the levels that existed during the Presidency of Felipe Calderon. Unilateral escalation would also shut down many of the normal diplomatic channels with Mexico as well as the covert channels the US government maintains in Mexico which could lead to real terrorism on the US’ doorstep. One must remember, the cartels are businessmen first – albeit ruthless businessmen. In the past, they have sought to clean up their image with the US by helping turn over wanted criminals as well as potential terrorist suspects.
Thank you to Agora Lab for offering me the time to present my views to the forum and to the UN officials observing the event. I hope I will be able to contribute to future events.
William L. Marcy - Home 